Hi all,
Welcome to the 27 (!) new subscribers since my last post. As always, if you know of someone else who might enjoy reading these articles, feel free to forward this over.
Popping in to share this notification I received within the TikTok app today:
If you’re having deja vu, I sent a similar email in April.
Back then, TikTok had just enabled video uploads up to 30 minutes long, up from 15.
Barely six weeks later, that length limit has doubled again. (!!)
I’ve been saying this ever since TikTok expanded from 1 to 3, and then 10, and then 15, and then 30 minute videos, but I’ll say it again:
Midroll ads are coming.
I have no inside information, but one needs to look no further than YouTube or cable TV (remember that?) as analogs for what’s going on here.
TikTok is already incentivizing top creators (your correspondents included) to create videos over a minute long with the recently launched Creator Rewards Program.
We’ve touched on this before, but creators get paid more money if their videos have a high RPM, or revenue per 1,000 qualified views.
Per TikTok’s own website, RPM is influenced by factors like:
Video performance (your videos' average watch time and finish rates)
Search value (the amount of search traffic that your content generates, including video views on the search page)
Location (the region where you're based and where your video is viewed)
Video engagement (the amount of viewers that engage with your content)
Advertising value (your viewer's ad watch time on TikTok)
Isn’t it a little obvious what’s going on here? Why else would these factors (especially “advertising value” and “search value”) matter, if not for determining ad placement?
If you’re still unconvinced, here’s a post in the /r/TikTok subreddit from four days ago:
See that “Ad starts in 2” greyed-out oval on the right hand side?
Looks like they’re already beta-testing it with certain users.
Here’s a social media educator talking about midroll in a YouTube video 9 days ago:
Okay dude, I get it. Midroll’s coming. But what does that actually mean?
Ads used to only occur one in every six TikTok videos. Today, they’re 1 in four, with another 1/4 being TikTok Shop promo, and another 1 in 4 is a TikTok LIVE promo.
Pretty soon, that might be inverted, and we’ll have 4 ads within one TikTok (shudders)
As for what that means more tangibly?
Well if I’m uBlock Origin or AdBlock Plus, I’m working on a TikTok version ASAP.
But if I’m an entertainment venture in any capacity, I would start posting longer TikToks immediately.
When I audited all of Matt Rife’s TikTok posts from 2022-2023, this chart was the biggest takeaway:
Evidently, distance makes the views grow higher.
And so if I'm SNL, I’m not only posting full sketches this offseason to tide fans over until Season 50, but I’m also posting the same "Best of Kenan Thompson” or “Every Stefon Ever” longform videos that we already posted (with great success) on YouTube.
If I’m a stand-up comedian, I might try to be the first person to host my full special on TikTok, in addition to the traditional excerpts of stand-alone jokes and set pieces.
If I’m a DIY podcast, I'm posting full episodes straight to TikTok, in addition to clips.
I’m definitely curious if this means TikTok has future plans to offer a paid, ad-free tier.
After all, I’m old enough to remember when ad-supported Hulu was free.
Today, it’s $7.99/mo.
Okay dude, I get it. Longer TikToks. But what does that actually mean?
As creators, brands, and advertisers, early adoption is your biggest competitive advantage when it comes to social media strategy. It's not just about jumping on the trend d’jour (Four Seasons fully conscious baby, I believe), but about understanding the underlying shifts in the platform's strategy, and aligning your output accordingly.
It’s clear that TikTok is attempting to rapidly transition from a quick-bite, short-form video platform into something like YouTube meets a slot machine meets Argos.
But this nudge towards longer videos – along with the intertwined proliferation of midroll ads, could redefine the entire user experience – likely for the worse.
Will TikTok’s directional shift set a new standard for other platforms (e.g., Meta products) that are looking to squeeze every last dollar out of dwindling advertising budgets, or will it spark a pushback from users seeking a purer, ad-free experience?
Personally, I’m bearish.
David Zucker is a digital marketing consultant based in New York City. A former analyst at TikTok, his unique, data-driven approach has catapulted the growth of his clients’ audiences all over the world. He is also writing this in the third person, for some odd reason.
If you’re interested in learning more about how I could help you or your clients grow and mobilize your audience, feel free to throw some time on my calendar.